You are back! Hope all is well and you continue posting again. Would be interested in a portfolio update if that is the sort of thing you would ever consider? I never picked up the big move that you did but recently became a Sabre Insurance shareholder and would be interested in your thoughts there and elsewhere (Dominos, McBride etc) if you still hold.
Good to hear from you. I still hold Sabre and my view on it has not changed . I did have some concern the vague consumer duty regs could impact them but this seems so far to be confined to premium finance which is not a material source of revenue for Sabre. I don’t think much will happen to the share price in the short term as claims inflation will increase loss ratios into next year but pricing will have to harden. Sabre tends to do better than others in that kind of environment.
I still hold Dominos and my view has not changed except a concern that the new CEO who is a dominos lifer and good operator wants to buy another qsr franchise. Not enough of a concern to sell at this stage.
I’ve sold cbg, s&u and mcg. Cbg I wrote about. s&u I sold partly because the expanded court of appeal ruling on commissions brought them in scope, albeit this may not be upheld by the Supreme Court, and partly because the regular has pushed their returns lower by forcing them to give more forbearance on arrears. If the latter abates the shares could be of interest again. MCG sold student bus way below what I (and from what I can see, the market) had expected with no commentary as to why they didn’t wait to sell. The valuation of remainco no longer made any sense and to see any upside you’d have to expect a big recovery in UK bus or Alsa would have to continue its outperformance (which jt may do but which J couldn’t get comfortable enough with)
You are back! Hope all is well and you continue posting again. Would be interested in a portfolio update if that is the sort of thing you would ever consider? I never picked up the big move that you did but recently became a Sabre Insurance shareholder and would be interested in your thoughts there and elsewhere (Dominos, McBride etc) if you still hold.
Hi Mike
Good to hear from you. I still hold Sabre and my view on it has not changed . I did have some concern the vague consumer duty regs could impact them but this seems so far to be confined to premium finance which is not a material source of revenue for Sabre. I don’t think much will happen to the share price in the short term as claims inflation will increase loss ratios into next year but pricing will have to harden. Sabre tends to do better than others in that kind of environment.
I still hold Dominos and my view has not changed except a concern that the new CEO who is a dominos lifer and good operator wants to buy another qsr franchise. Not enough of a concern to sell at this stage.
I’ve sold cbg, s&u and mcg. Cbg I wrote about. s&u I sold partly because the expanded court of appeal ruling on commissions brought them in scope, albeit this may not be upheld by the Supreme Court, and partly because the regular has pushed their returns lower by forcing them to give more forbearance on arrears. If the latter abates the shares could be of interest again. MCG sold student bus way below what I (and from what I can see, the market) had expected with no commentary as to why they didn’t wait to sell. The valuation of remainco no longer made any sense and to see any upside you’d have to expect a big recovery in UK bus or Alsa would have to continue its outperformance (which jt may do but which J couldn’t get comfortable enough with)